It’s happening again. U.S. natural gas futures are spiking, headlines are screaming, and somewhere, an oil executive is probably popping champagne. On Monday, prices clawed their way up from a two-week low, with Henry Hub gas trading at $3.98 per MMBtu by mid-morning—up from the not-so-tragic $3.74 per MMBtu just a week ago.
And why? Because exports are surging. Because demand forecasts are “strong.” Because, despite what you’re told, this market isn’t about consumers—it’s about power.
Venture Global: The New King of the LNG Empire
If you thought gas companies would sit back and let an opportunity pass, you haven’t been paying attention. Venture Global, the Arlington-based LNG giant, just cranked up production at its Plaquemines plant—a monstrous 20 mtpa (million tonnes per annum) facility that raced from final investment decision (FID) to first production in a record-breaking 30 months.
Let’s be clear: this is a power move. The plant is now one of the largest in the world, featuring 36 electrically-driven liquefaction trains (because, of course, they have “trains”—they couldn’t just call them machines). Once fully operational, Plaquemines will be pumping out LNG at a rate that makes the U.S. virtually untouchable in global exports.
And Venture Global’s CEO, Mike Sabel, is not shy about it. “Reaching first LNG at Plaquemines at this pace will enable the United States to remain the top exporter of LNG in the world,” he said, before throwing in a few buzzwords about jobs, the balance of trade, and—of course—how this is all for the benefit of U.S. allies.
(A word of advice: whenever an energy executive talks about “supporting local economies,” check your wallet.)
Europe’s Insatiable Appetite—and the U.S. Rush to Feed It
If you’re wondering who’s buying all this gas, the answer is simple: Europe. Ever since the world decided that Russian gas was no longer an option (for very valid reasons), the U.S. has been filling the void. And the gas companies? They’ve been more than happy to oblige.
Two weeks ago, Cheniere Energy—another LNG heavyweight—began producing gas at its Corpus Christi Stage 3 Liquefaction Project. Seven midscale trains, over 10 mtpa of LNG, and a project that’s already 76% complete. The final stages should be wrapped up by early 2025, and when that happens, expect even more headlines about America’s energy dominance.
Because here’s the thing: no one in the industry is slowing down. Why would they?
The Demand That Won’t Die (And the Weather That Might)
For all the talk of renewable energy, the numbers tell a different story. Demand for gas in the Lower 48 is climbing higher than experts anticipated, even as milder weather is expected through mid-March. And then there’s the stockpile situation—U.S. reserves are sitting 12% below the five-year average, thanks to brutal cold snaps earlier in the year.
But don’t worry—producers are already on it. In February alone, U.S. gas output hit a fresh record of 104.7 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day). Because if there’s one thing the industry knows how to do, it’s keep the gas flowing.
The Bigger Picture: Who’s Actually Benefiting?
Let’s cut through the noise. Every time gas prices spike, we hear the same recycled arguments:
- “This is good for the economy.” (Translation: It’s great for gas companies.)
- “Exports strengthen U.S. global influence.” (True, but mostly for those making the deals.)
- “This will create jobs.” (Sure, but let’s talk about how many and for how long.)
The reality? The boom in U.S. LNG is making a handful of corporations very rich while locking in long-term fossil fuel dependence at a time when the planet is—how do we put this gently?—not handling it well.
And yet, here we are. Prices are climbing. Export records are being shattered. And if you’re waiting for a real discussion about whether any of this benefits regular people, don’t hold your breath.
Because in the world of energy markets, the game is always rigged—and you’re not the one calling the shots.
