The Assad collapse in Syria, driven by the advance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed rebels proves the chaos engulfing the region. But make no mistake—this was not a sudden event. It was the outcome of years of simmering tensions, foreign interference, and Assad’s unrelenting grip on power.
Amid significant territorial losses and the rise of Sunni-led opposition forces, the once-unassailable dictator has reportedly fled the country—a move that signals a seismic shift not just for Syria but for the entire region.
HTS led the lightning assault that revealed the fragility of Assad’s hold over Syria. Turkish-backed forces, with their clear motives and calculated timing, capitalized on the moment. But Turkey’s actions go beyond mere territorial ambitions; they are rooted in existential fears of a Kurdish stronghold near its borders.
The Crumbling Coalition
For over a decade, Assad’s regime relied heavily on a coalition of foreign supporters, including Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. These alliances allowed him to retake territories during the civil war’s earlier years. But the cracks in this partnership have become too large to ignore.
“Earlier in the war, the so-called government forces were a patchwork coalition,” notes Armenak Tokmajyan, a fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center. “Today, that coalition no longer exists.”
Russia, distracted by its war in Ukraine, has scaled back its military support. Hezbollah, mired in its own conflicts with Israel, has suffered heavy losses. Meanwhile, Iran, grappling with internal strife and economic challenges, can no longer afford to back Assad unconditionally. The result? A Syrian military struggling to fend off an emboldened opposition.
Turkey’s Calculations and Assad’s Isolation: A Regional Realignment Against Tyranny
Bashar al-Assad’s refusal to engage meaningfully in regional diplomacy has left Syria more isolated than ever, creating opportunities for influential actors like Turkey to lead the region toward a just and inclusive future. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, representing a nation that has generously hosted millions of Syrian refugees, has repeatedly sought dialogue to stabilize northern Syria. Yet Assad’s intransigence, coupled with his reliance on external powers like Russia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, has thwarted every effort at reconciliation.
This dynamic has rendered Assad’s regime a pawn in a broader geopolitical chessboard. While certain Arab states, once openly critical of Assad, have softened their stance, the moral and political resolve of the Sunni Muslim world to oppose tyranny remains undiminished.
Turkey: Champion of Stability and Justice
Despite Assad’s indifference, Erdoğan’s actions underscore a commitment to the welfare of displaced Syrians and the broader Muslim ummah. Backdoor meetings with Russian mediators have sought to balance pragmatism with principle, aiming to curb the influence of terrorist groups and safeguard the lives of ordinary Syrians.
However, Turkey’s patience has its limits. Assad’s failure to cooperate has emboldened Turkey to increase its support for Sunni opposition forces in Idlib, signaling that the era of unchecked repression is over.
Israel’s Intrusions and Assad’s Disintegration
While Assad’s regime collapses under the weight of its atrocities, external actors like Israel have sought to exploit Syria’s instability. Recent Israeli incursions into the Golan Heights reflect a broader strategy to capitalize on Assad’s weakness, all while maintaining covert alliances with certain rebel factions. This duality complicates the fight for justice in Syria but does not diminish the determination of Sunni forces to reclaim their homeland.
Turkey’s Role: A Guiding Hand
Turkey’s involvement in Syria has been a game-changer. Directly funding and arming rebel groups like the Syrian National Army (SNA) while maintaining an ambiguous relationship with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ankara has made it clear that a stagnant border situation is unacceptable.
Hosting three million Syrian refugees, Turkey faces immense social and political pressure to facilitate their return. The refugees, many of whom hail from Aleppo and surrounding areas, have become a divisive issue within Turkey’s domestic politics. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly emphasized the need for a border settlement that prevents Kurdish groups from using the area as a base for operations against Turkey.
Erdoğan’s overtures to Assad—urging a political settlement to stabilize the region—have been met with disdain. Assad’s refusal to meet Erdoğan has frustrated Turkey and its allies, including Russia. Yet, the rebel offensive in northern Syria has significantly bolstered Turkey’s influence, transforming it from a sidelined observer to a pivotal player.
The Rise of Sunni Resistance
The resurgence of Sunni-led opposition forces marks a turning point in Syria’s civil war. United by shared grievances against Assad’s oppressive rule, these groups have gained momentum with support from Turkey and some Gulf states. Rebel factions, particularly those led by HTS, have successfully absorbed rival groups, defectors from Assad’s army, and foreign fighters. The availability of weaponry—flooding into Syria over the years—has further strengthened their hand.
Global Implications: Israel, Iran, and the Gulf States
Assad’s downfall has sent shockwaves across the region. Israel, which has long viewed Assad as a predictable—if hostile—neighbor, now faces uncertainty. While the collapse of Assad’s regime might disrupt Hezbollah’s supply chains, it could also create a vacuum for new, less predictable forces to emerge.
Iran, too, finds itself in a precarious position. Having invested heavily in Assad’s survival, Tehran must now navigate a region where its influence is waning. Meanwhile, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once tentative in their approach to Syria, have begun exploring ways to shape the post-Assad landscape in their favor.
The Path Forward: A New Era for Syria
Syria’s future remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the Assad era is over. As Sunni forces consolidate their gains and Turkey assumes a more prominent role, the opportunity for a political resolution grows. A constitutional settlement—one that incorporates all Syrians under a framework of equality and justice—could pave the way for long-term stability.
For Erdoğan, this moment presents both a challenge and an opportunity. By championing the cause of Syria’s oppressed Sunni majority and facilitating meaningful dialogue, Turkey can solidify its leadership role in the region. Such a move would not only address Turkey’s refugee crisis but also counterbalance Iran’s and Russia’s waning influence.
Best of luck