China’s President Xi Jinping proposed the idea of One Belt One Road’ in a speech at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan on September 7 during an international tour in 2013. The project was renamed the ‘Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).’.
It is basically a modernized version of the trade route that was originally established 2,000 years ago from China’s Xian province to the Mediterranean Sea.
However, at that time, this route was known as the Silk Road. This Silk Road, which was established in the first century BC, closed in the 10th century. The current Chinese president wants to rebuild this route on a larger scale. He also wants to expand his dominance in these areas through massive investment in the infrastructure sector. China wants to use this route to spread its products worldwide. This special project includes 60 countries. The cost of which is estimated at about one trillion dollars. China wants to complete the project by 2049. In 2049, China will enter the 100th anniversary of its revolution.
‘Wild Swan’ of the 21st-century economy
This Chinese initiative is called BRI in short. It is called the largest development project of the 21st century.
China will benefit greatly from this project. In the last decade, China has traded goods worth more than $19.1 trillion between the BRI countries. However, whether the economy of the 21st century will be a Chinese century or not depends on the infrastructure of this global trade.
There are three things here: the most states, the most financing, and diplomatic and geopolitical projects. In 2017, he compared the project to a “Wild Swan,” saying, “This bird is found only in Asia, not in Europe. He called it a new model of joint benefit through this cooperation. Everyone has accepted this issue. This is the biggest development project of this century.If it is fully implemented, the BRI project will become Globalization 2.0. At this time in the world economy, Chinese globalization has brought a challenge to the world.
By using this port, China will be able to transport the energy purchased from Africa and the Gulf region to its country in a relatively short time. What is more important here is that the CPEC corridor passes over Azad Kashmir, a disputed area in Pakistan. And India considers this area its own. Therefore, India has objections to the implementation of this corridor. If India withdraws from the Belt and Road Initiative due to that conflict, then another corridor of the project BCIM (Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar) will not be implemented.
The United States, the world’s top economy, is concerned about China’s huge investment across a large part of three continents. China is breathing down the neck of the United States. It is estimated that China will become the world’s number one economy within the next 10 years. Xi Jinping wants to make China a world power by 2050. Britain ruled the world in the 19th century, and the United States in the 20th century. It is estimated that the 21st century will be China’s. Britain ruled the world by establishing colonies around the world. The United States provided massive financing in the name of rebuilding war-torn European countries after World War II. In this way, the country established dominance around the world. And currently, China is expanding its dominance through massive investments in the infrastructure sector of poor countries. It can be said that China is waiting to become the economic king of the 21st century.
It’s a debt trap
Many believe that this large Chinese project will lead to a debt trap.
Opposing countries allege that China is trying to dominate poor countries under the guise of this large project. It is trapping poor countries in a debt trap. However, there are some strong arguments behind their allegations. Unable to repay Chinese debt, Sri Lanka leased its second-largest seaport, Hambantota, to China for 99 years. Kenya’s Mombasa Island has also gone to China for 99 years. However, there is also a reverse picture. China has forgiven the debts of the African countries Ethiopia and Zimbabwe and the Central American country Cuba.
Through this BRI project, China is becoming a lender to many low- or middle-income countries. China is currently the world’s largest international lender. China’s debt trap is nothing new. By providing loans to underdeveloped and developing countries, China has secured its interests in various ways. China is taking control economically by burdening the country with a heavy debt burden and offering attractive development proposals. The borrowing countries are also responsible for this. These countries enter into loan agreements without proper planning. Due to which the countries are later compensated. China’s loans are at high interest rates. These high interest rates are burdening the countries with skyrocketing debts.
China’s diplomatic victory?
China has the potential to achieve not only economic victory but also diplomatic victory in this BRI project. China’s biggest goal here is to expand its influence throughout the world. As a proposing country, China has many interests in the BRI. It is a major tool of China’s foreign policy. It serves as a complement to the objectives and priorities of Chinese foreign policy. Friendship with neighboring countries, increasing cooperation with developing countries, maintaining and sustaining globalization, and increasing global cooperation on the environment and climate change are among the interests.
However, countries other than China will also benefit from the BRI. Countries with relatively rich economies will receive various benefits like China. Participation in the BRI can also bring many benefits to countries with relatively less rich economies. Various benefits, including building the necessary infrastructure, raising the necessary funds/investments, modern technology, and improved connectivity. A study has shown that in the past decade, various middle-income countries, including Mexico, Argentina, South Africa, Kenya, and other countries, have expressed an increasingly favorable attitude towards China. Here China is trying to influence through loans to implement their agenda.
This is an easy way through the BRI project. It is believed that China will go a long way diplomatically for these issues. Through this project, security and diplomatic alliances will be increased. Due to which many have commented that diplomatic success is on the verge of China.
BRI’s Potential as a Mega Infrastructure Initiative
The first route of the six corridors of the BRI project extends to Central Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Russia, and the heart of Europe. Its trade and transport infrastructure is complemented by economics, investment, technology, and currency. On the other hand, the BRI initiative also includes a maritime route to connect the Mediterranean Sea with the South China Sea. This route is one of the three Maritime Silk Roads, which exend through various destinations such as the Suez Canal, the Indian Ocean, and the Strait of Malacca. The other two alternative maritime routes of the Maritime Silk Road for global connectivity are the Pacific Ocean Route and the Arctic Ocean Route.
To understand the impact of this large-scale Chinese project, one must recall the step-by-step process of forming the European Common Market—European Commission—European Union—under the guidance of the United States during the Cold War, such as the Marshall Plan or ERP aid, in Western Europe, and the Molotov Plans of the former Soviet Union in Eastern Europe. These projects show that mega-infrastructure projects often integrate a large market through economic expansion, which increases economic growth in the relevant region and improves the standard of living of the people. However, such integrated regions or agreements also increase hegemonic competition among the members.
The United States launched the Marshall Plan to help the people of Western Europe after the devastation of World War II. In addition to economic recovery, another objective of the Marshall Plan was to prevent the spread of communism across Europe. In contrast, the Soviet Union adopted a plan called the Molotov Plan in 1947 to rebuild the countries of Eastern Europe in the post-war period. Many believe that the US Marshall Plan helped divide Europe along geopolitical, political, economic, trade, diplomatic, military, and cultural lines during the bipolar era. And in the unipolar era, the US maintained its dominance through the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and anti-terrorism activities.
Similarly, China is also going to walk on that path by reviving the ancient Silk Route. On top of this, the initiative to include China’s local currency, the Renminbi, in the currency basket, the formation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, BRICS, and the Digital Silk Road, as well as the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, are believed to restructure the entire Eurasian continent. And currently, the entire world is entering a multipolar era from a unipolar one.
China is building deep-sea ports at various important places in the Indian Ocean to implement the Belt and Road project. But the powerful countries surrounding the ocean will not easily accept China’s presence in the Indian Ocean. But China has been able to build a strong position there by investing heavily in relatively weak countries. This is where China differs from the UK, the USA, and Russia. China wants to rule the world not through political influence but through economic influence. It remains to be seen how far China’s grand project BRI can go, faced with all sides of current world politics and the new Trump administration. The whole world is waiting to see how far China will expand its sole dominance in the 21st century. The BRI project will take their dominance several steps forward.
