Till the announcement of the recent ceasefire, more than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed, and almost all of the population of 2.1 million are living in etesian accommodation. At least 1.9 million people—or about 90% of the tract’s population—are displaced.
Many have been coerced to relocate repeatedly, some as many as 10 times. And then there came a ceasefire announcement, thanks to the mediators. But the question lingers: will it last long or end just like a snowball that melts down in a 30 degree Celsius temperature? Let’s deal with it.
“Simply unimaginable”: Shaina Low said well
Hunger strikes severe in southern Gaza. Shaina Low, the Norwegian Refugee Council’s communications adviser in Palestine, stated the conditions in northern Gaza are “simply unimaginable,” with exquisite shortages of food and water and very little medical aid being allowed to enter.
Meanwhile, humanitarian aid organizations have accused Israel of routinely stopping aid shipments and even encouraging armed groups to loot convoys. In August 2024, Bezalel Smotrich, the Israeli finance minister and head of one of the hardline nationalist religious parties in the government’s coalition, said impeding humanitarian aid from reaching Gaza was “justified and moral” even if it caused 2 million civilians to die from hunger to ruin Hamas.
The prices of vital foods are now about 20 times the regular prices, out of reach for most people, who have already been penniless due to a lack of income and repeated displacement. In 2024, the UN and partners made plans for 5,321 humanitarian aid deliveries across Gaza, of which 24% were denied, 19% faced impediments, and 9% were cancelled.
“We are running: bombing, death, and destruction in one hand while hunger and cold on the other hand,” said Nusseibeh, 25, who has been displaced with her son five times and whose sister Sumaiya was killed by an Israeli airstrike. According to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, eight newborns died from hypothermia within three weeks because of the cold winter weather, dearth of shelter, and winter supplies.
According to a recent report by The Ministry of Public Works and Housing, the war had left more than 161,600 housing units demolished, another 194,000 structures partially damaged and approximately 82,000 homes being turned uninhabitable.
Western Responsibilities, whether admitted or not
The U.S., in particular, has been a steadfast ally of Israel, providing military aid, diplomatic backing, and political support, which has often been seen as a contributing factor to the continuation of Israeli policies that Palestinians view as oppressive, such as the expansion of settlements in the West Bank and the blockade of Gaza. This support has been perceived by many as a sign of bias, which undermines the legitimacy of international efforts to mediate peace.
Furthermore, western countries, especially the U.S. and EU, have often been reluctant to apply significant pressure on Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories or address issues such as the expansion of settlements, which are seen as illegal under international law. This lack of accountability has led to frustration and resentment in Palestine and much of the Arab world.
They have often downplayed or ignored Palestinian rights to self-determination, sovereignty, and freedom. For example, the U.S. decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017 was seen as a major blow to Palestinian aspirations, as they also claim the city as their capital.
While Western countries have been involved in various peace processes (e.g., the Oslo Accords and the Camp David Summit), their attempts have been inconsistent and sometimes driven by short-term political interests. Western countries have also often failed to ensure that both parties adhere to the agreements made.
Western powers’ broader geopolitical interests in the Middle East, including maintaining alliances with Israel, countering Iran, and securing energy resources, have often shaped their policies in ways that have undermined genuine peace efforts. This has sometimes resulted in a lack of impartiality in their approach to the conflict.
Catalysts that can reshape the conflict
It is difficult to predict with certainty how Israeli-Palestinian tensions will unfold in 2025, as the situation is deeply rooted in complex political, historical, and social factors. However, several potential developments could shape the trajectory of the conflict.
There may be continued international pressure, particularly from the United Nations, European Union, and other global actors, urging both sides to negotiate for a peaceful resolution. If there is a significant shift in global alliances or political will, it could result in more concerted efforts for peace talks.
Besides, strategic shifts in priorities are expected from both nations in 2025. Israeli politics could see a rise in more moderate leadership that may favor diplomacy, while Palestinian politics could witness either a consolidation of power among existing factions or a more unified approach to negotiation.
Furthermore, shifts in the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape could either amplify the conflict or create opportunities for new peace efforts. For instance, changes in the relationships between Israel and Arab nations, or the role of external powers like the U.S., Iran, or Russia, could influence the situation.
As a possible imperative, growing global and regional public awareness and activism could lead to increased calls for an end to the violence, influencing both governments and international organizations to push for a resolution.
Additionally, depending on the dynamics on the ground, either more frequent outbreaks of violence or efforts to de-escalate and negotiate ceasefires could take place. At least, the recent endeavors to agree to the mediation of the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar spread the glimmer of hope. The U.S. wanted to commence these measures before Trump took the oath, as he had threatened to deteriorate the Middle Eastern condition very recently.
So far we say, Western nations have played a significant role in both perpetuating and attempting to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. To alleviate tensions, they need to adopt a more balanced, consistent, and transparent approach, focusing on human rights, fair diplomacy, and a just ‘Two State Solution’ for both Israelis and Palestinians. The Muslim dominion state should also come out of its shell and focus on making a ceasefire and establishing sustainable peace through neutral means.
