Donald Tramp is going to take power in the United States on his second attempt, defeating Kamala Harris. Donald Trump has made history in the US presidential election. He will officially take office as the country’s president on January 20, 2025.
After every US election, the global economy is under discussion. Discussions have begun about the impact Donald Trump’s victory will have on the global economy.
Before the election, Trump promised the citizens of the United States various things. These included
- Working for people who have lost their jobs due to globalization, technology and trade agreements.
- Deporting illegal immigrants.
- Creating employment opportunities by reviving domestic industries.
- Establishing peace by ending several ongoing wars in the world.
These promises indicate that the world economy will be under various pressures in the Trump era. The interests of the United States will be given priority here.
In order to understand how the world economy will be or how it will be affected by Donald Trump’s election in the US, some previous issues need to be discussed. Here there will be various economic and foreign policy issues. In order to understand how it will be or how it will be affected by it, some previous issues need to be discussed. Here there will be various economic and foreign policy issues.
Economics:
For the first time as a president, Donald Trump introduced a tax reform law to reduce taxes. Which reduced the tax rate for businesses and the rich. The issue of reducing taxes here was likely to increase the long-term national debt rate for the US economy. Although the goal of this tax policy was to increase employment.
Trump believed in the policy of imposing high tariffs on foreign goods to maintain trade balance. The Trump administration’s adopted a high tariff policy to reduce the trade gap with various countries, including China. At that time, a kind of ‘trade war’ started with China, which had an impact on the whole world.
Import-dependent countries have had to struggle a lot. Many countries have been negatively affected economically. In the meantime, economic instability has started in various countries. Trump was very strict about immigration policy as president. He especially started building a border wall to stop immigration on the Mexican border. The Trump administration emphasized increasing employment for US citizens by limiting immigration here.
The aspects of Donald Trump’s foreign policy that can be observed.
China Issue :
During the Donald Trump administration, diplomatic relations with China deteriorated for various reasons. In the past, during Trump’s presidency, the US- China relationship became competitive and full of conflicts. The Trump administration imposed high tariffs on Chinese products to reduce China’s influence in the world economy and military power. The US was trying to maintain its trade balance by waging this ‘trade war’ with China. It is expected that it will follow the same path after taking power this time.
Iran Issue:
In 2015, six world powers – the US, the UK, Russia, France, Germany and China – signed a nuclear deal with Iran. Under this agreement, Iran, a uranium-rich country, limited it’s uranium production. Uranium is used to make nuclear weapons. But Trump has always opposed the agreement made when Barack Obama was US president. During the 2016 presidential election campaign, Trump announced that he would cancel the agreement if he came to power. Trump withdrew the US from the agreement in 2018, keeping that announcement. He gave the excuse that Iran is developing nuclear weapons in violation of the agreement. He also imposed new economic sanctions on Iran. This is expected to cause another major shock to the world economy.
NATO-European Union Issue:
According to international media reports,Trump’s term in office will be a difficult test for the US’s European allies to maintain unity. The Trump administration will even prioritize reducing it’s dependence on NATO, strengthening its own military, and protecting it’s own economic interests. Trump’s ‘America First’ policy could have a major impact on Washington’s long-term foreign policy. This has already created concerns among NATO allies.
Israel and the Middle East Issue:
Donald Trump promised to restore ‘peace’ to the Middle East in his election campaign, like in Ukraine. If he wins, he has insisted that he will end the Israel- Hamas war in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon. Trump has maintained a staunchly pro-Israel policy during his time in power. He recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described Trump as “Israel’s best friend in the White House”. There are fears that the Trump administration’s Middle East policy could further destabilize the region.
Donald Trump’s economic and foreign policy is based on the “America First” ideology. The Trump administration’s first imposition of extremely strict tariffs is seen. Especially if Trump’s tariff policy is maintained this time, there is a strong possibility of increasing inflation. This could lead to a collapse in trade between the United States and China. There will be a huge upheaval in the global supply chain. In the past, it has been seen that the Trump administration’s economy has imposed high tariffs on other countries’ products and restricted imports of goods to maintain the trade balance of various countries with the United States. If the Trump administration continues this time, the global supply of goods may be disrupted, which will have a huge impact on various countries, especially developing countries. Economic analysts and those involved in global trade are warning that if a trade war starts between the United States and China during Trump’s term, its repercussions will be felt in other countries of the world as well.
In addition, if the trade war intensifies again, it will have a further impact on the Chinese economy. This will hurt countries in Southeast Asia that are either related to China or that work as contractors for China. Economists believe that the Trump administration’s trade protectionist stance could slow down globalization. This couldhave a negative impact on many countries that rely on goods and services produced outside the United States. However, this trend could lead to countries reducing their dependence on imports and moving towards self-sufficient economies in the long run.
In the economic sphere, Trump’s policies could push inflation. This would increase interest rates and accelerate the depreciation of currencies in developing and emerging markets. The Trump administration has a history of emphasizing the use of traditional fossil fuels while reducing investment in environmental protection and renewable energy. This policy could stall progress on global environmental policies and climate agreements such as the Paris Agreement, which could destabilize the global oil market and exacerbate environmental impacts.If the Trump administration imposes new economic sanctions on Iran, economic instability in the Middle East will increase. The Trump administration’s Israel policy may indirectly affect the global economy.
Trump will take office as president in 2025. If Trump’s economy and foreign policy follow the previous approach, it can be said that it will have a negative impact on the global economy. However, its impact will be diverse. Although some countries will benefit, this economy may be a source of risk for many countries. We will have to wait for a few months to see which direction the Trump administration’s economy will take. Various countries around the world are already making preparations in advance to make their economies sustainable.
Writer: Student of MSS, Department of Mass Communication & Journalism, Jagannath University, Dhaka
