While many have pointed to Russia as being hostile to Israel’s regional endeavors, Russian behavior towards Israel has been fairly modest. Russia has not sought to make large efforts to respond to Israeli operations, even as tensions grow in the Middle East. This has in turn raised eyebrows as to why Russia has not moved more proactively to court Israel. Is this the act of strategic thinking or is Russia limited by the necessity to think ‘globally’?
Opposition’s Story in Russia
After the incident witnessed on October 7 by Hamas on Israel, there was information indicating that Russia could use the Israeli war on the Iran-backed axis of resistance to counter support for Ukraine in the West. Some experts assumed that Moscow may be interested in the given conflict serving its own interests by providing military or intelligence assistance to organizations such as Hamas or Hezbollah. However, which, measures the activities other than the verbal support, demonstrate the opposite – relatively inertial behavior of Russia and general policy of appeasement towards the Israeli state.
The Policy of Appeasement: A Missed Deterrent
However, in response to some of the Israeli adventures like the airstrike on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital, Russia has offered mild condemnations in public spaces. When several senior Iranian commanders were killed in an attack on the Iranian consulate in Erbil, the fight went from covert to overt. Nevertheless, Russia decided to do nothing to stop the aggressor from staging the strike. The absence of one of these actions, namely warning Israel in advance in order to avoid the destruction of the consulate was obviously missing. This passive approach underlines the fact that Russia still did not wish to challenge Israel in some way.
Therefore, the situation that has emerged in this case makes Israel refuse reliance on Russia as a deterrent force and take a more menacing position against Iran and its allies. Actions of Israel in Syria and further foreign policy in the Middle East have weakened Russia’s standing more and more.
Realms of Influence: Why Russia Hesitates
This is why Russia has not wanted to confront Israel: it is related to its interests in general. Russia has played pretty much a strategic diplomacy especially with the major states in the region including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Such countries have recently become more active on the international arena and are interested in building an equal partnership with both Russia and Israel. asserting itself more assertively on the Israeli issue, Russia hurts the interests of these crucial states that are important for Russia’s further economic and political development.
Infact, Israel’s ascending regional power to aquire footprint in the central Asian states have been a cause for concern for Russia. According to Israeli experts, the fact that most of the population in Central Asian states is Muslim signals a new region of interest for Israel. This is especially a concern from an historical standpoint particularly for Russia as it seeks influence with former soviet states.
Russia’s Strategic Calculations: Avoiding Escalation
The appeasement policy towards Israel can also be viewed through the view of Russian military obligations, especially in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has reduced Russia to a state with little ability to match the Israeli’s militarily and diplomatically. Besides, the economic and political output caused by the Russia and Ukraine war put further pressure on Russian leadership and increases the potential of escalating the conflict in order to counter the Israeli rise within the Middle East region.
In contrast, Russia has been supporting Iran’s position and the overall axis of resistance without corresponding material aid in terms of the latter’s military profiles. Still, Iran’s massive help to Russia in terms of weapons and military supplies to the Ukraine fray has never been matched with more advancing and sophisticated military assistance to Tehran by Russia. Moscow has avoided arms sales to Iran especially of high end equipment –fighter planestechnology as well as warning Iran against attacking Israeli targets.
The Risk of an Unbalanced Middle East
Why Moscow Does Not Counter Israel Moscow does not want to get involved in a conflict that would put it in a position of having to choose sides in the larger geo-political struggle in the Middle East. Thus, Russia misses an opportunity to use force against Israel in order to maintain a good relationship with such countries as Saudi Arabia and Turkey that are vitally important for Russia in the Middle East. However, this policy of non-interference means that this vital region will be left with no other choice than to surrender to the United States that has crystal clear goals, sympathetic to that of Israel.
One of the long term costs of this appeasement policy of Russia may be setting of the political influence capability of Russia in this region. In supporting Iran and its allies, Moscow is at risk of becoming diplomatically lonely in a Middle East which is rapidly being dominated by American and Israeli influence.
Conclusion: The Paradox of Russian Strategy
In brief, one can note quite opposite approach of Russia to Israel. It has remained an incessant source of verbal criticism of Israeli actions, but a passive one in any practical action. The situation with Russia not willing to condemn Israel activities clearly demonstrates Moscow’s passive aggressive policy of appeasement because it does not want to lose traditional allies while it does not seek confrontation in yet another heavily tense region. On one hand Russia’s unwillingness to challenge Israel decisively pointed to the weaknesses of its foreign policy strategy and on the other the ways in which it poses a problem for Russia in the face of shifting dynamics in the Middle East.
In so doing there is the continued possibility that Russia may eventually be forced alter its strategy or whether it will continue to marginalized its regional interests in favor of the short term political and economic gains.
